Shopify Inc. (SHOP) launched in 2006 as a platform to help businesses sell online, and today, it powers over $1 trillion in sales, with half of that coming in just the last two years. Now, SHOP stock is gearing up to join the Nasdaq-100 Index ($IUXX) on May 19, replacing MongoDB (MDB) - a move that could pull in a wave of institutional money and further elevate Shopify's profile.

That rising prominence has caught the eye of Cathie Wood, the widely followed investor behind Ark Investment Management. Known for investing in disruptive innovation, her bold portfolio moves often reflect deep, long-term conviction, and frequently set the tone for market watchers. 

Last week, after Shopify’s Q1 2025 earnings, Wood doubled down, buying Shopify’s shares across its flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) as well as the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). Despite near-term profit pressures, ARK’s bet suggests confidence in Shopify’s trajectory. 

With the upcoming Nasdaq-100 addition suggesting that Wood could be the first of many institutional investors to buy SHOP stock with both hands, should you pick up shares now?

About Shopify Stock

Founded in Ottawa, Canada, Shopify (SHOP) began as a simple online store builder and evolved into a global e-commerce powerhouse. Today, it equips millions of merchants with tools to manage inventory, payments, and customer relationships across digital and physical channels. With a market cap of $139.4 billion, Shopify stands at the forefront of modern retail infrastructure.

Shares of Shopify have seen a dramatic rise, climbing over 90% over the past year on the back of strong business fundamentals. While fears of an economic slowdown and tariff-related tensions dragged the stock down 14% from February highs of $129.38, the pullback proved temporary.

Recently, Shopify has staged an impressive comeback. Shares surged 33% over the past month, including a 13.7% jump on May 12, fueled by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a 90-day tariff pause. Investors were further energized by Shopify’s upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, pushing growth sentiment sharply back into focus.

Cathie Wood’s SHOP Bet

When Cathie Wood bets big, the market takes notice, and Shopify is clearly one of her high-conviction plays. Across three of Ark Invest’s various ETFs, she’s steadily built her stake, scooping up shares again on May 8 and 9.

In ARKK, Shopify holds the No. 8 spot with $279.6 million invested, accounting for 4.94% of the fund. It’s also the No. 8 holding in ARKW, with 4.67% weight. But the real standout is ARKF, where Shopify reigns as the No. 1 holding, commanding 9.67% of the fund.

Shopify’s Q1 Revenue Tops Estimates

On May 8, Shopify reported its Q1 earnings results, fueled by a growing merchant base, deeper payment reach, and bold moves into new markets. Revenue surged 26.8% to $2.4 billion, outpacing Wall Street’s expectations, while adjusted EPS hit $0.25, up 25% year over year. The top line's growth engine was merchant solutions and subscriptions growth, which rose 29% and 21%, respectively.

Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) clocked in at $74.8 billion, up 23%, fueled by seasoned sellers scaling up and new ones jumping aboard. Europe stood out, with GMV spiking 36%. Behind it all, Shopify Payments continues to dominate, handling 64% of GMV as adoption spreads across borders. Free cash flow (FCF) jumped 56.4% year over year to $363 million, achieving a margin of 15%.  

Shopify has now reported eight quarters of 25% or more pro forma revenue growth, seven straight with GMV gains north of 20%, and double-digit FCF margins. But looking toward Q2, investors had one eye on tariffs and the other on trade war fallout. While Shopify is not a direct importer, many of its merchants are tied to Chinese suppliers, so removing the “de minimis” loophole stirred unease. However, Shopify projected mid-20% revenue growth for Q2 - enough to meet, if not beat, Wall Street’s 24% target.

President Harley Finkelstein put it plainly: businesses run sharper on Shopify, regardless of external noise. And with tools built to weather shifting trade dynamics, the platform could turn turbulence into opportunity. Beneath the surface, Shopify is expanding its merchant base, deepening payment reach, and storming into offline and B2B markets. These moves are stacking new revenue streams on top of its e-commerce stronghold, while global expansion continues to unlock fresh ground. Solid GMV gains through April and May confirm the momentum is real.

Analysts tracking Shopify predict its EPS to surge by 13.7% year over year to $1.08 in fiscal 2025, and rise by another 29.6% to $1.40 in fiscal 2026.

What Do Analysts Expect for Shopify Stock?

Shopify’s fundamentals are strong, and most analysts leaned into their bullish ratings after the latest quarterly report.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $112 from $106 with an "Overweight" nod, while JPMorgan's Reginald Smith trimmed SHOP's price target to $115 from $124 and kept an "Overweight" rating, citing the solid Q1 and steady merchant trends - even with tariffs looming. 

Meanwhile, UBS analyst Timothy Chiodo cut SHOP's target to $110 from $125 and held a “Neutral” rating.

Shopify stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating - signaling confidence, but not without caution. Out of 45 analysts covering SHOP, 28 recommend a "Strong Buy," two give a "Moderate Buy," 14 analysts are playing safe with a "Hold" rating, and one has a "Strong Sell" rating.

The mean price target of $117.37 suggests that the e-commerce stock could rise by 5.3% from the current price level. The Street-high target price of $175 implies an upside potential of 57%.